The Voice of Peace
ia monthly magazineof
World
Commission for Peace & Human Rights Council
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Nuclear
Chicken In West Asia
Eric Margolis
CIA calls the border between
India and Pakistan the world's most likely
nuclear battleground. Over the
past two weeks, relations between the two
bitter rivals, who have
fought three wars since 1947, have escalated
sharply.
In Delhi, the new coalition
government dominated by the Hindu chauvinist
Bharatiya Janata party called
for open deployment by India of nuclear
weapons and long-ranged
missiles, an act that would accelerate the arms
race with Pakistan and
deeply alarm China. To date, India has kept its
very extensive nuclear program
secret, and denied possession of nuclear
weapons. Intelligence
sources estimate India has 25-40 nuclear weapons
and stockpiled enriched
uranium to produce 70 more. While Washington
creates an uproar
over Iraqi strategic weapons, which may not even
exist, it turns a blind
eye to India's surging military might, which
includes chemical as well as
nuclear weapons.
This week, BJP Deputy
Prime Minister and Home Minister, L.K. Advani, a
hard- liner closely linked to
the secretive Hindu fascist organization,
RSS, warned Pakistan of
"serious consequences" over disputed Kashmir.
India accuses Pakistan's crack
intelligence service, ISI, of sustaining
the 8-year
independence struggle by Kashmir's Muslim majority. In
diplomatic jargon, "serious
consequences," means war.
Bill Richardson, America's
capable UN ambassador, recently visited Delhi
and Islamabad in an effort to
calm this dangerous situation, and prepare
for a Fall visit by
President Clinton. Richardson's trip was not a
success. India refused to
stop developing its nuclear arsenal. As a
result, so did
Pakistan. Neither nation has singed the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Meanwhile, the missile
race between India and Pakistan is heating up.
Delhi just announced a
longer-ranged version of its `Prithvi' missile,
able to deliver a 1000kg
high-explosive, chemical, or nuclear warhead
over 250kms. `Prithvi' can
strike all Pakistan's cities.
India is also
accelerating development of `Agni,' a 2,500 km -range
ballistic missile with a
mid-yield nuclear warhead - which can cover all
Pakistan, and half of China
and Iran. Reports have just come out that
Russia is helping India develop
a submarine-launched ballistic missile
targeted at Pakistan.
Pakistan, with only
one-seventh India's population, just scored a small
psychological victory by
unveiling `Ghauri,' a new 900-km range missile
named after a 12th century
Muslim emperor who defeated the Hindu ruler,
Prithvi! Pakistan is
estimated to have a dozen partially assembled
nuclear weapons.
While the US has done
little to oppose, and has even aided, India's
growing nuclear
capabilities, Washington has singled out Pakistan for
severe and
unusual punishment. This week, US
officials claimed
Pakistan's `Ghauri' was based on
smuggled technology from North Korean's
`Nodong' missile
series. Gary Milhollin, an much-quoted expert on
nuclear proliferation,
who usually echoes the views of the US and
Israeli governments, amplified
the charges.
The US next tried
to bribe Pakistan into halting missile tests by
offering `to help resolve'
the long-standing issue of impounded F-16
aircraft. Pakistan ordered
and paid US $650 million for the 28 US-made
warplanes over a decade ago. But
in 1990, Israel got the US Congress to
embargo the aircraft in a
vain effort to force Pakistan to curtail its
nuclear program. Israel has
a long- standing policy of preventing any
Islamic nation from
developing nuclear weapons. Washington refuses to
release the by now
deteriorated aircraft - or to return Pakistan's
money.
Pakistan's conventional
and nuclear forces most defend that nation of
137 million from hostile India,
which has 967 million people, and armed
forces of 1,145,000. Islamabad
has never shared nuclear technology with
any other nation. Cash-poor
Pakistan even turned down offers by Iran in
1990 to pay Pakistan's
entire defense budget for 10 years in exchange
for nuclear know-how.
But the US, under heavy Israeli pressure,
continues to embargo and punish
Pakistan.
Ironically, by denying
Pakistan warplanes to counter India's growing
fleet of modern Russian MiG's
and Sukhoi's, Washington forces Pakistan
to rely increasingly on
nuclear weapons for defense. Recent threats by
India's BJP leaders
to "crush Pakistan" and "reunite Mother
India"
underlined the threat to
Pakistan's security - and continued existence.
The Clinton
Administration is also trying to prevent the spread of
Chinese and Russian
military technology to potential foes of Israel by
offering Beijing and
Moscow large sums of cash, and at least $1.5
billion in contracts to launch
American commercial satellites. Israel's
supporters in Congress
are threatening to cut off aid to Russia, and
have held up billions of
US civilian nuclear reactor sales to China
until Washington
certifies Moscow and Beijing have ceased sales of
military technology to Pakistan,
Iran and Syria.
This all amounts
to a gigantic foreign policy mess, in
which US
strategic interests, domestic
politics, and commerce are at loggerheads.
India and Pakistan aren't
likely to junk their nuclear programs. India
insists, with reason, it
won't disarm until China does. Besides, nukes
give India self-
confidence, big power status, and, as an Indian
diplomat told me
pithily, "it scares the hell out of those bloody
Pakistanis."
Pakistan rightly
says its national survival against hostile,
nuclear-armed India depends on
nuclear weapons. Iran says it, too, must
have nukes since
hostile Israel, and potentially hostile India and
Russia, have them. Israel
maintains 200-400 nuclear weapons against any
eventuality - and as ultimate
life insurance against a second Holocaust.
One day, Egypt and Syria will
also go nuclear.
A nuclear conflict between
India and Pakistan could kill millions. Their
crude "dirty" weapons
would contaminate the globe with radioactive dust.
Defusing this threat should be
the priority of international diplomacy.
Alas, it is not. |
