Dispel
South Asia's Nuclear Cloud
By Mansoor Ijaz
As the world's attention
is transfixed on bombing Saddam, the risk is
growing that South Asia's
undeclared nuclear powers, Pakistan and India,
will conduct a new
round of nuclear tests and missile deployments
following the current elections
in India.
South Asia's
politicians are likely to move closer to
an open
endorsement of regional
"weaponization" if right-wing Hindu nationalists
garner enough voter support to
form the next Indian government.
The potential ramifications
for South Asia's economies and people are
significant. In per capita
income, both Pakistan (at $450 per year) and
India (at $380) are among
the poorest nations in the world. Literacy
rates are dismally low - less
than 50 percent. Malnutrition and disease
are widespread. Yet
both countries continue to spend more than 25
percent of their annual
budgets - some $10 billion to $12 billion
combined - on
building their war machines. Reducing
military
expenditures by
just 10 percent, for example, would
fund the
construction and operation of
tens of thousands of rural schools.
Complicating this situation
is the elusiveness of peace in Kashmir. The
disputed Himalayan enclave
has been the flash point for military and
nuclear tensions
since Pakistan and India formally separated from
Britain and each other in
1947. Islamabad and New Delhi already have
fought two wars over Kashmir, in
1947 and again in 1965.
But the potential for a
new South Asian crisis resides not in the
possibility of Kashmir flaring
up again or in the rhetorical barbs that
might fly between Hindu
fundamentalists and radical Islamists. It lies
in each country's
nuclear command structure. Indian nuclear policy
resides in the hands of
its political leaders. Pakistan's Army chief
controls that country's
policy.
A right-leaning Indian
government, buoyed by nationalistic fervor, might
authorize thermonuclear
tests in India's Pokharan desert or deploy
Prithvi missiles aimed at
Pakistan. These moves could be seen as a way
of demonstrating India's
regional virility and its global identity as an
independent, powerful
state no longer subject to the whims of the
world's superpowers.
Such action on India's
part would almost inevitably be met with an
immediate and equal
response from Islamabad. Pakistan could deploy
Chinese-made M-11 missiles or
conduct a nuclear test of its own. It's no
coincidence that Pakistani
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif visited China
last week for wide-ranging
talks.
But instead of opting for a
militaristic identity, a right-leaning India
could just as easily provide the
framework needed for peace and economic
revitalization. With
proper moderation, nationalist hard-liners might
finally construct a peace with
Pakistan over disputed Kashmir - a peace
that could be sold domestically
without fear of appearing to compromise
national pride, unity, or
security interests.
The task of
moderating the nuclear aspirations of
India's Hindu
nationalists could - and
should - fall on America's superpowerful
shoulders. Washington has for
some time unwittingly engaged in a form of
"nuclear
apartheid" in South Asia, economically
and militarily
sanctioning Pakistan's nuclear
ambitions while increasing investment in
India tenfold.
While New Delhi
has adamantly refused US mediation on Kashmir, the
United Nations, backed by
Washington, should be resolute in pressuring
India to resolve the
world's longest-standing border dispute - and the
only one with
nuclear overtones. If in Iraq and Bosnia, why not in
Kashmir?
The opportunity for creating
a lasting peace there may never be better.
Pakistan, for the first time
since the 1965 war, has a political leader
in Mr. Sharif whose will
for peace is bolstered by an unassailable
parliamentary majority.
His political roots emanate from Punjab, the
most populous Pakistani
province and the one most directly affected by
the issues of war and peace in
adjoining Kashmir.
Just as Hindu
fundamentalists could sell peace as not compromising
Indian national interests,
so could Sharif sell peace to Pakistanis as
no compromise of their
national interest. Resolving Kashmir also could
pave the way for a
meaningful restructuring of military-industrial
complexes in both Pakistan
and India, thereby reducing an intolerable
burden on national
resources.
The world can
only hope that nationalists in both countries
will
understand that the
construction of more bombs will never adequately
ensure the security of their
nations.
Certainly,
economic revitalization, made possible by peace with its
neighbors, should be
the first order of business for India's new
government. |
